Two clowns: positive thoughts beyond the current gridlock

The term “clown” is currently à la mode when describing the two true victors of the recent Italian election, Silvio Berlusconi and Beppe Grillo: Peer Steinbrück, the SPD’s designated candidate for the German chancellorship, was at it first, and the Economist followed suit on its cover, no less.

I’ve got my positive hat on, however, so will refrain from name-calling. Instead, I’ll look way beyond the current impasse (for possible scenarios in the respect, see Alberto’s post on the matter), utterly ignore current economic woes, and suggest why I’m quietly optimistic about Italy in the year 2020.

For years, many have been decrying Berlusconi’s transformation of Italy. Supposedly, his brand of politics has been the root cause of the economic, social and cultural stagnation we’ve witnessed over the last 20 years, and his legacy would be that for a generation, lewd, corrupt, anti-democratic strongmen could abuse the system much like he’d done.

I’m over that now. Yes granted, nearly 1 in 3 Italians may have voted for him (see why in my last post) but once he goes, so will his brand of politics. For the Berlusconi phenomenon represents a perfect storm that surely cannot be repeated. Simultaneously, we had:

• A total political vacuum within the centre-right following Mani Pulite in a country which predominately veers centre-right
• Similarly, a distaste for politicians that was even greater than at present, which formed the ideal platform for an anti-system candidate
• A left-wing diluted along a giant stretch veering from extreme left to centre left, and still tainted by the “communist” label, which in light of the collapse of the Societ Union seemed ever more anachronistic
• A single person with the following characteristics
  • Undoubted political genius (far from a clown, SB is a political mastermind: his ability to play the system and maintain absolute control of the centre-right following the circumstances that allowed him to first hit centre stage is striking)
  • Unprecedented media control
  • Huge personal wealth

My optimism also stems from the Grillo factor. His rise has stoked fears: some of his statements on the economy are highly suspect (e.g. a referendum on the euro) while nothing is known of his merry band of utterly untested candidates. 160 people have just been elected to office who have no experience and whom we practically know nothing about: a potential recipe for disaster?

However, in terms of the medium to long term and what his movement’s popularity says about Italy, I think it’s rather positive. On the one hand, clearly, a protest by such an enormous number of people on both sides of the political divide against the perceived corruption and cronyism of the system implies that there are a few honest folk left. But beyond mere protest, as Jon writes in a recent post, “the M5S culture is genuinely participative in the way no traditional party in Europe has yet become.”

Many have claimed that Berlusconi is merely a demonstration of Italians’ clientelistic notion of politics: one where politics today is a system reminiscent of Italian city-states in a bygone age where strong men rule and supporting them may bring rewards, rather than one where an engaged an vocal electorate demands that its needs be met. Sure, the M5S is noisy, but it’s also an entirely democratic talking shop in which all men (and women) are equal, and open and honest debate trumps the will of the leader (in theory at least!)

My last reason for quiet optimism is that the real losers in this election were the PD. The term “handed to them on a plate” is an understatement, yet they failed to reap the rewards. Might this finally lead to the long overdue modernisation of the Italian centre-left? The indisputable rejection of the progressive Matteo Renzi in the primaries last year showed that the rank and file was not ready to break from the past. Might it be now? Fingers crossed.

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